Military escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2026 unlikely -  FIS report

ArmInfo.  The likelihood of a military escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2026 has significantly decreased, while the likelihood of a peaceful settlement has increased as a result of intensive high-level  bilateral negotiations in 2025, as well as the signing of the  Washington Declaration and the Agreement on the Establishment of  Peace and Interstate Relations, reached with the active participation  of US President Donald Trump on August 8. This is stated in the 2026  Annual External Risks Report of the Republic, published by the  Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) of Armenia.

"As a result of a comprehensive analysis of the aforementioned and  related processes and data, we consider it virtually unlikely that a  military escalation of varying magnitude between Armenia and  Azerbaijan for military-political reasons will occur in 2026. We also  consider localized actions or incidents unrelated to  military-political motives to be unlikely," the report states  regarding relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. At the same time,  the Armenian Foreign Intelligence Service believes that 2026 will  most likely see further progress in the process of border demarcation  and delimitation between the two countries, bilateral trade and  economic initiatives, intersocio-cultural dialogue, humanitarian and  other issues.

"Even if regional infrastructure is unblocked, progress will likely  be recorded in processes already underway, and Armenia's bilateral  initiatives to develop transport infrastructure with neighboring  countries will stimulate the implementation of larger-scale regional  economic projects," the report continues.

"However, at the same time, in 2026, the risks of malicious actions  by states pursuing their own influence and growing interests in our  region, directed against these transport infrastructure development  processes, will increase. And the consistent use by Azerbaijan and  other actors of malicious discourses and concepts that question  Armenia's sovereignty and impede the implementation of transport  infrastructure development programs will only contribute to the  materialization of these risks," the Armenian Foreign Intelligence  Service added.

It is also emphasized that the Service's comprehensive analysis shows  that the discourse about so-called "Western Azerbaijan" and the  "return of Western Azerbaijanis," promoted by Azerbaijan at the state  level, and its accompanying actions, constitute a significant  negative and risky factor for long-term peacebuilding. It is noted  that the Service's data show that Azerbaijan has not only failed to  reduce, but has significantly intensified this propaganda since the  Washington Declaration, which poses a significant threat to regional  stability, security, and long-term peace. "In 2026, one of the  Service's priority tasks will be to continuously assess the actual  purpose of Azerbaijan's state policy of promoting the 'return of  Western Azerbaijanis.' Specifically, it will assess whether  Azerbaijan, by transforming these themes into a new national  ideology, intends to transfer the conflict to Armenia in some new  format, or whether talk of the so- called 'return of Western  Azerbaijanis' is part of Azerbaijan's foreign policy bargaining and,  in particular, a tool to counter the return of Karabakh Armenians,"  the Armenian Foreign Intelligence Service report notes.

Following the forcible seizure of Artsakh in the fall of 2023,  Azerbaijani authorities began actively promoting the narrative of the  'return of Azerbaijanis to their homeland in Western Azerbaijan.'  Moreover, this homeland is defined as the entire territory of  Armenia. Azerbaijani authorities falsify historical data and present  the entire territory of Armenia as "historical Azerbaijani lands."