US still sees obstacles to final reconciliation between Yerevan and  Baku - expert 

ArmInfo.  Orientalist Ruben Safrastyan published the US Intelligence Community's "Annual Threat Assessment" for 2026, which focuses on Armenia and notes the existence of obstacles to a final reconciliation between Yerevan and Baku.

As the Armenian expert wrote on his Facebook page, the report was  declassified several hours ago by the US Office of the Director of  National Intelligence.

Safrastyan then cited excerpts from the report regarding Armenia,  noting that the US-hosted peace summit between Armenia and Azerbaijan  on August 8, 2025, provided both countries with an opportunity to  establish lasting peace and contributed to increased regional  stability. It states that the peace summit's outcomes included a  preliminary agreement on the terms of a peace treaty and plans to  establish the US-led "Trump Route for International Peace and  Prosperity" (TRIPP), which would connect Azerbaijan with its  Nakhchivan exclave via southern Armenia, opening trade flows for both  countries and the entire region.

"These events represent a significant shift in the direction of  Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. In 2020 and 2023, Azerbaijan  militarily regained control of its Nagorno-Karabakh region,  previously under the control of an ethnic Armenian population backed  by Yerevan. Since August 8, both sides appear poised to maintain the  positive momentum established after the Peace Summit," the report  continues. In this vein, it notes that ceasefire violations on the  Armenian-Azerbaijani border have sharply decreased and are now  virtually nonexistent. It adds that in October 2025, Azerbaijani  President Ilham Aliyev announced that Azerbaijan would lift  restrictions on cargo transportation through Azerbaijani territory to  Armenia, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan reciprocated  within days. Since then, Azerbaijan has supplied Armenia with  gasoline and permitted the transit of wheat.

"The road to a final peace agreement remains hampered. For example,  President Aliyev continues to insist that Armenia amend its  constitution to remove what he calls language that makes  Nagorno-Karabakh part of Armenia. This step would require a  constitutional referendum in Armenia, the outcome of which is not  guaranteed," the US intelligence community report states.