Moscow should be more concerned over loss of positive public opinion - expert

ArmInfo. The "Trump Route" project is eliciting a very interesting response from the Russian Federation. Political scientist and director of the Regional Center for Democracy and Security Tigran Grigoryan stated this during discussions on the TRIPP project.

According to him, in the recent past, when Western involvement in the region was growing, including through the European Union's civilian mission, Moscow's reaction was much harsher, more pointed, and more rude.

Currently, Russia remains a significant presence in the region, particularly in Armenia. This refers to Moscow's control over Armenia's infrastructure and trade. Against this backdrop, the TRIPP initiative is eliciting a somewhat different reaction from Russia. It seems Moscow understands that even if this program is implemented, it will continue to play an important role in the region. One of the key components of the "Trump Route" is the lack of reciprocity in relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Moscow's role in this matter could significantly increase. For example, this could occur through the supply of Armenian goods to Russia via Azerbaijan, or vice versa. "Obviously, Russian companies will perform this function," the political scientist said, noting Baku's intention to establish a direct land link with Ankara, despite Moscow's somewhat different perception of this connection. If the project is implemented, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that Russia will still control this route. Moscow's pragmatic policy toward Washington, particularly US President Donald Trump, with whom it is attempting to establish normal relations, also plays a significant role in Moscow's participation in the TRIPP project. Against this backdrop, the political scientist noted, the European Union has become Russia's main adversary.

However, according to Tigran Grigoryan, the presented project is also rife with skepticism. If the conflict drags on and the Ukrainian conflict resolves, Russia's role in the region will significantly increase, and Moscow's involvement in the South Caucasus will become much more tangible. Once the Ukrainian conflict is over, Moscow will attempt to use its existing leverage over Yerevan, including economic, trade, and infrastructure. However, this influence will no longer be at the same level it was before the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Moreover, during this war, irreversible events occurred in the region:  the exodus of the Armenian population from Nagorno-Karabakh, where Russian peacekeeping forces, which had been a significant influence on both Armenia and Azerbaijan, are no longer present. "Even in the long term, I don't see a scenario that would lead to a restoration of the status quo; that is, one lever of pressure is already missing. Unlike military-political cooperation between Armenia and Russia, which is experiencing a crisis, the economic situation is completely different.

This is, in fact, evidenced by the growth rate of bilateral trade, which has consistently shown significant growth since 2022.

Therefore, the economic component has become the most significant factor in Russia's relations with Armenia and other CIS countries.

"It would be a painful blow for Russia if Armenia decided to leave the Eurasian Economic Union, although both the republic's accession to the EU and its withdrawal from the EAEU appear unrealistic in the near future," the political scientist emphasized.

He added that he does not believe Moscow can apply the soft power policy it has employed against Yerevan over the past several years. The extent of this soft power is also already in doubt. 

"Ultimately, one thing must be understood: Moscow should be far more concerned not by Yerevan's diversification of areas of cooperation, but by a significant loss of public opinion among Armenian citizens toward Russia," the political scientist concluded.