RA FIS sees preconditions for continued military confrontation  between Iran and Israel in 2026

ArmInfo.  The Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) of Armenia sees preconditions for a continued military confrontation between Iran and Israel in 2026.

A report published by the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) of  Armenia on the Republic's external risks in 2026 states that the  12-day Iran-Israel war has had a significant impact on the policies  of those involved in the events in the Middle East and the Persian  Gulf, creating a new balance of power in the region.

It is noted that the issue of determining the status of non-state  militarized groups in the Middle East, the uncertainty regarding  their future activities, and the conflicting positions of regional  and extra-regional players on this issue further complicate the  situation.

The SVR also noted that as a result of last year's Iran-Israel war,  Iran's nuclear and missile programs were set back, but not  neutralized. In the post-war period, the issues on the negotiating  agenda with Iran have also changed significantly. In addition to the  nuclear program, they concern Iran's missile potential and its Middle  East policy.

It is emphasized that in the post-war period, both countries are busy  addressing the vulnerabilities that arose during the war and  developing their military potential. On the other hand, even after  the 12-day war, the topic of negotiations on the Iranian-American  nuclear issue will continue to influence processes unfolding in the  broader context. "Considering the fact that the 12-day war between  Israel and Iran failed to achieve all of the parties' strategic  objectives, the likelihood of war or other mutual attacks of varying  intensity will likely persist into 2026.

This, in turn, will expand the scope of the Republic of Armenia's  security challenges in terms of managing the movements of migrant and  other threat groups; it will create economic and logistical problems;  and it will diversify the risks threatening the peacebuilding process  in the South Caucasus.

At the same time, the success of the Islamic system in managing  current internal processes in Iran will likely be significant for the  implementation of programs promoted by Middle Eastern and  extra-regional players. Growing instability in Iran will further  increase the risks to Armenia's security," the Armenian Foreign  Intelligence Service stated.