Political scientist: Global destruction of treaty mechanisms in the world to affect the South Caucasus

ArmInfo. The global trend of  dismantling treaty mechanisms will also have an impact  on the South  Caucasus region, as stated by political scientist David Arutyunov in  an interview with an ArmInfo correspondent. He was talking about the  intention of the Armenian authorities to shorten military service,  which was seen in the Armenian expert community as another step by  the Armenian authorities to appease Azerbaijan.

According to the expert, such a decision by the authorities could be  motivated by three factors. Firstly,  to attract more contract  soldiers and reduce the conscription component. Secondly,  as a  strategic move before the upcoming parliamentary elections in June  2026,  to gain voter support.

"This is also an attempt to demonstrate that the criticism coming  from Baku is groundless, namely, that Armenia is not arming itself.  This sends a  message that Armenia does not pose a threat to  Azerbaijan," the expert believes.

Speaking about the likelihood of renewed hostilities in the region,  the political scientist noted that Azerbaijan not only continues to  increase diplomatic pressure on Armenia in the context of Yerevan's  constant concessions, but also to build up its military power. In  this vein, Arutyunov did not rule out the use of military force by  Azerbaijan in the event of a change in the regional situation. In  particular, the resumption of tension around Iran, against the  backdrop of the Washington agreements and increased US involvement in  the affairs of the South Caucasus. 

"And if Armenia does not have alternative defense mechanisms at that  time, the country will find itself in a difficult situation. However,  the ongoing militarization of Azerbaijan is not only based on the  logic of attacking Armenia, but is also the result of a policy that  has justified itself and demonstrated its effectiveness. Azerbaijan  understands perfectly well that their current dominance in the region  is largely due to their military potential. Therefore, regardless of  how the situation around the signing of a peace treaty with Armenia  will develop, they will continue to develop this tool," the expert  emphasized. 

Touching on the Armenian authorities' steps to reduce the number of  the country's Armed Forces, the political scientist expressed his  conviction that these actions are generally not unfounded in the  context of a sharp deterioration in the military-strategic position  of the country. "We must take into account that if before 2020 the  country dealt exclusively with Azerbaijan, when the potential of the  two countries was generally comparable, today we are dealing with  Turkey's obvious interference. Therefore, it is important to separate  propaganda from real life. In theory, the army really comes first,  but we need to correctly assess its capabilities today," Arutyunov  noted.

The expert is confident that Armenia today really needs other  security mechanisms, but this does not mean that the fact of the army  should be disregarded. "Ideally, they need to be combined correctly,  and their capabilities realistically assessed," the political  scientist added.

He believes that today the country is moving towards the Western  model until 2022, which assumed compact professional forces. This, as  Arutyunov noted, carries risks, given the challenging nature of armed  conflicts and its controversial nature  in the case of Armenia. "Such  a decision may also be a way  to hide new concessions, a tactic  inherent to these authorities. What the authorities have declared is  indeed applicable in theory, but the question arises as to how  effectively it will be implemented in practice. Of course, today  Armenia does not have enough resources to solve its problems by  military means - other mechanisms are needed. But we should not  forget that the military mechanism plays a decisive role in all  this," the expert concluded.