Azerbaijan cannot do without clashing with Russia in context of  ambitious tasks in Armenian and Iranian theaters - Russian expert 

ArmInfo.  The Azerbaijani leadership was moving towards a break with Russia, gradually raising the stakes and testing the strength of its Moscow counterparts from time to time. This is how political science doctor Dmitry Tsybakov commented on the latest round of tension between Moscow and Baku.

The expert believes that for many, the recent transition of the  neighboring country to the camp of open opponents of Russia was a  revelation. At the same time, he is sure that if the media hype and  verbal demarches of public figures can still be attributed to  temporary aggravation, then with the raid on the representative  office of the Russian news agency and the arrest of its employees,  everything fell into place.

"We are facing the worst example of relations from the Cold War era.  Even the Western pro-Ukrainian coalition has not seen such actions  since the start of the Cold War. Everyone who is in the know  understands that the Azerbaijani leadership was moving towards a  break with Russia, gradually raising the stakes and from time to time  testing the strength of its Moscow counterparts. This is how the  destruction of the crew of a Russian combat helicopter during the  Second Karabakh War and the death of our peacekeepers at the time of  the final phase of the conflict in September 2023 should be  interpreted," Tsybakov is sure. At the same time, the expert is sure  that Russia will have to reap the fruits of its own short-sightedness  and compliance in the very near future. He noted that unofficial  calls are being voiced to organize protests among Azerbaijanis living  in the Russian Federation, along with playing the religious card.

"There is a desire for something more ambitious than just a desire to  get even for the premature death of those accused of organizing  contract killings. The situation becomes clearer if we keep in mind  Baku's geostrategy. It is now directly aimed at the final resolution  of the "Syunik issue" - that is, cutting a corridor to Turkey through  Armenian territory itself. And at the very most - turning all of  Armenia into a Turkic protectorate," the Russian expert believes.

According to him, literally in recent months the Iranian direction  has also become relevant - those who think that the Anglo-Saxons and  Tel Aviv will simply leave Tehran alone are mistaken. Tsybakov noted  that the strategy of crushing the Iranian regime will undoubtedly be  long-term - as was the case with its Iraqi neighbor under Saddam.

"And here, of course, there is a place for the claims of Azerbaijani  nationalists. Obviously, crowds of courtiers are now creating an aura  of "unifier of the nation" around the President of Azerbaijan, and  the Karabakh success has turned many hot heads. We are seeing the  prospect of turning a once very balanced politician into another  variation of Napoleon-Saakashvili," he continued. Tsybakov noted that  the solution of both ambitious tasks - in the Armenian and Iranian  theaters cannot do without a clash with Russia.

"This is precisely where the reasons for the ongoing obstruction of  the Russian state by nationalists of the neighboring country come  from. Society in it needs to be properly warmed up and prepared for  the coming conflict, which they will try to unleash in the  foreseeable future - while the SVO is not over yet," the expert  noted. The political scientist believes that the choice before  Russia, as always, is small: a decisive rebuff or a shameful  appeasement of another potential enemy. According to him, there is  also a third option - the option of half measures, more familiar for  the entire post-Soviet period.

"In any case, it is high time, albeit very late, to pay close  attention to Azerbaijani society. It is very heterogeneous both in  the republic itself and in the vast expanses of Russia. The term  "diaspora" is not quite correct here. We are talking about a large  community, which is made up of not one, but at least several  diasporas, who are far from delighted with each other. In addition,  some of the Russian Azerbaijanis are quite firmly integrated into our  society and have never been to their historical homeland.  Others  have not joined our society, but are objectively far from supporting  the regime in Baku for clan reasons. The time has come to search for  pragmatically thinking figures in the Azerbaijani community, who  understand the detrimental effect of a complete break with Russia for  their interests," Tsybakov noted, citing the very instructive example  of neighboring Georgia, which after years managed to independently  abandon the Russophobic course of the corrupt elites.