Armenian expert presents three possible scenarios for  Armenian-Azerbaijani relations under the Trump administration

ArmInfo. Americanist Suren Sargsyan outlined three possible scenarios for the development of the situation surrounding the Armenian-Azerbaijani normalization under  the Donald Trump administration.

He mentioned that the Biden administration has been actively  mediating in the regulation of Armenian- Azerbaijani (as well as  Armenian-Turkish) relations.  Sargsyan believes that outgoing  President Biden called on Aliyev and Pashinyan to sign a peace  agreement by the end of the year in his letters for this reason. "He  objectively wanted to receive the laurels of a mediator in this  initiative. If Kamala Harris' victory ensures the continuity of the  Democrats' political course, then there is no such prospect in the  case of Trump," the expert is confident.  According to the political  scientist, if we realistically assess the situation, there are three  possible scenarios for its development.

Firstly, Sargsyan is confident that the Trump administration will not  be eager to quickly sign any agreements, as in that case they would  have to acknowledge that credit for the success belongs to the Biden  administration, or at the very least, share it with the Democrats.   "On the other hand, Trump can delay the negotiations and the process  of reaching an agreement until he can take credit for it, especially  since he needs successful stories of achieving peace. Of course, the  delay scenario is also in the interests of Baku, as Azerbaijan will  demand more from Armenia and be subject to less pressure," the  Americanist believes.

According to the political scientist, the second scenario may involve  Trump not actively participating in the affairs of the South  Caucasus. In this case all initiatives  in the region would be led by  the regional players such as Russia, Turkey, and Iran. "This is also  in the interests of Baku, as there will be no pressure on it.   Azerbaijan, unlike Armenia, is capable of negotiating with Tehran,  Ankara, and Moscow. This scenario will certainly create an imbalance  into the region because the absence of America frees up all players.  As is known, any imbalance leads to an increase in the influence of  the winning party," he noted. The third scenario, according to him,  is an escalation around Iran, which could turn the region into a  "transitional yard" with all the negative consequences.