Markedonov: Aliyev and his team are trying to update the  national-state agenda

ArmInfo. The 2024 parliamentary elections will be the first campaign  held within the  internationally recognized borders of Azerbaijan. This was stated by Sergei Markedonov, Russian political scientist.

The political expert wondered whether the issues of climate change on  Earth could be connected to the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict and the  Nagorno-Karabakh problem. He stated that posing such a question  appeared as a bold postmodern approach. However, according to him,  paradoxical convergence of different agendas sometimes occurs in  international politics. He mentioned that on the first day of  September, citizens of Azerbaijan would be electing deputies to the  Milli Majlis (parliament) of the republic.

 At the same time, Markedonov noted that throughout the post-Soviet  history of Azerbaijan, parliamentary elections have not played a  significant role, with the exception of the 2005 campaign. He said  that during that time, many external experts were influenced  emotionally and psychologically by the 2003 presidential campaign,  which was the first elections involving Ilham Aliyev and was marked  by mass protests, as well as the "Rose Revolution" in Georgia and  "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine. "They were looking for signs of  similar upheavals in Baku in the street actions of the Azerbaijani  opposition blocs "Azadlig" and "Yes-New Policy". However, these  expectations turned out to be inversely proportional to the real  consequences of these actions.

Since those years, much has changed in Azerbaijan. Heydar Aliyev's  successor turned out to be more than the son of a great father. He  was able to not only rely on the vertical power structure created by  his predecessor, but also to rebuild it based on his own ideas about  the beauty. Naturally, these ideas did not always align with those of  the opposition and external players," Markedonov believes.  According  to him, however, the political and ideological weaknesses of the  former, and the interests in Azerbaijan among the latter, compensated  for these problems.

"Having successfully resolved the issue of restoring the country's  territorial integrity, Ilham Aliyev has further strengthened his own  positions both domestically and internationally.  And yet, in 2024,  parliamentary elections were conducted as part of an extraordinary  campaign, following the pattern of the 2020 and the 2024 presidential  elections. Looking back now, we understand that the delay of the 2020  parliamentary elections was primarily due to the second Karabakh war.  Spantaneous decisions in such matters are usually well thought out.  In 2024, the postponement of the elections is attributed to Baku  hosting the UN Climate Conference (Climate Summit/COP-29) from  November 11-22. Azerbaijan is now taking over from the UAE,"  Markedonov added.

In this regard, he wondered what Nagorno-Karabakh has to do with it?  "There is an indirect connection here for two main reasons. The  upcoming 2024 parliamentary elections will be the first campaign held  within the internationally recognized borders of Azerbaijan.  Following the presidential election in February, now it is time for  the parliamentary elections. During the presidential elections in  Nagorno- Karabakh, 26 polling stations were open for 20 thousand  voters. In September, there will be 55 stations for 40 thousand  people. It is clear that this will be a significant event for the  authorities. As Pierre Bourdieu taught us, symbols have a profound  impact on the political landscape, sometimes even more so than  economic factors," the political scientist added.

At the same time, he is certain, that without the KS-29, the  Azerbaijani authorities would have found another reason. Markedonov  believes that the key is Ilham Aliyev and his team's desire to  modernize the national and state agenda. "Climate change is just one  aspect of this strategy. Following this path has both advantages and  obvious risks. Transitioning from a state of conflict to a  development trajectory is an appealing option (hence the COP-29,  Central Asia summits, economic diversification and focus on  innovation). However, the Karabakh issue, in the political context of  our country, has been the primary (and reliable) "glue" of  Azerbaijani society and politics. How much stronger will the new  national structures be compared to the old ones? The answer to this  question remains to be seen," Markedonov concluded.