South Caucasus needs balance through status quo -expert  

ArmInfo. It is common knowledge that the balance of forces is seriously disturbed in the  South Caucasus, political scientist Alen Gevondyan told ArmInfo. 

According to him, the change in the foreign policy vector, which is  taking place in full view of the whole world, based on the policy of  the Armenian authorities, is also reflected in the public discourse,  sometimes reaching the point of amateurism. Statements like "the West  will help us" are often populist in nature and are not new in the  public consciousness. To a large extent, the political scientist  continued, this was facilitated by the unfounded statements of the  Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan, according  to which everyone is to blame for the current situation in which  Armenia finds itself, but not the authorities themselves. Moreover,  first of all, the Russian Federation is in the first row of culprits.

But, as Alen Gevondyan noted, there is another side to this game - in  the person of Azerbaijan, which skillfully plays the card of the  Russian peacekeeping forces stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku,  without providing the peacekeepers with an appropriate mandate,  actually put them in a hopeless situation. If the Russian  peacekeepers had taken any steps, it would have turned out that they  were assisting the Armenian side, while their mandate did not provide  for anything like that.

The main task of the peacekeepers was to maintain peace in the  region. Around all these issues, both in Nagorno-Karabakh and in  Armenia, a propaganda campaign was launched that Russian peacekeepers  were not fulfilling their mission, while they did not have mechanisms  to fulfill the demands of the Armenian parties. As a result, all the  arrows of criticism were directed against Russia, which led to an  emotional reaction from the Armenian society.

"Separate groups, public organizations, using these messages, began  to apply them in society, they say, look, Russian peacekeepers do not  solve problems, they do not assist the Armenian side at all, they  either do not want or cannot resolve issues, and therefore it is  necessary to find new umbrellas and new security systems. This  process began a very long time ago, starting with the Permyakov case  in Gyumri and ending with the opening of various funds, financed  mainly from the West, and aimed at discrediting Russia," the  political scientist noted.

However, according to Gevondyan, the problem is not the departure of  the Russians or the preservation of the Russian presence in Armenia,  but, speaking from the position of the Armenian state, the fact that  there must be a balance in the region between several states through  the formation of the status quo. If this balance is disrupted, one  dominant state appears in the region; in this situation, weak  countries with fewer resources find themselves in a difficult and  unpredictable situation, which can lead to a great tragedy. "We have  already encountered this at least once at the beginning of the 20th  century, in the form of the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire.  A similar tragedy could have repeated itself during the period of the  First Armenian Republic, when Turkey tried to "swallow" the South  Caucasus, and only after Russia's involvement in the region was it  possible to, in a sense, ensure the status quo," the expert noted.

He added that the imbalance has led to the fact that Armenia today  has become simply a tool in the hands of the West, which is flirting  with Azerbaijan against Armenia in order to oust Russia from the  region.

Answering the question about the possibility of the Russian  Federation applying "sanctions" in the form of creating obstacles at  the "Upper Lars" checkpoint in response to Yerevan's actions  regarding the CSTO, Gevondyan emphasized that this problem must be  considered in two aspects. On the one hand, the demarches of the  Armenian side towards the CSTO and Russia were noticeable and  obvious, taking into account the events taking place in the country  in recent years.

"Let us remember the topic of weapons that Yerevan paid for and did  not receive, as a result of which anti- Russian hysteria in the  country reached its climax. But in reality the situation was  completely different: the weapons were manufactured, and the Armenian  side was asked to take them away, which was not done, and this, in  turn, led to changes in the location of these weapons. Since the  Russian side often reacts late to ongoing events, and the public in  Armenia is extremely sensitive in such matters, the reaction is  immediately inadequate. Against the backdrop of these and other  events, it is not difficult to predict that Yerevan will slowly and  gradually reduce its relations with the CSTO.

A clear confirmation of this is all the processes that we are  witnessing: non-participation in numerous CSTO events in various  formats, public refusals to participate, a decrease in the levels of  representation of delegations. All of this, on the one hand, are  demarches, and on the other hand, the ground is being prepared for  the parallel use of other security systems in Armenia. Meanwhile,  according to the CSTO charter, its states cannot enter into relations  with other blocs. This means that at some stage Armenia will have to  decide on a choice: to remain in the CSTO or leave this structure,  thereby entering an incomprehensible and dangerous situation," noted  Alen Gevondyan.

The expert does not share the enthusiasm of a number of experts on  this matter who are in favor of the country joining NATO. "They  apparently have no idea about the North Atlantic Alliance, the  procedures, the standards in accordance with which new members are  admitted, and therefore they should not concentrate on this," the  political scientist noted.

As for the situation at the Upper Lars checkpoint, as Alen Gevondyan  noted, states that have friendly relations with the Russian  Federation, trust and money, have active partnerships. Whether there  are truly technical problems at the checkpoint or whether they are  related to political processes remains in question.  "But we all must  understand that the process of assessing the quality of exported  goods, to which Moscow often turned a blind eye, will no longer work,  since the approaches of the Armenian authorities have changed  diametrically. When we listen to the Prime Minister of the Republic  of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan, we get the feeling that we are listening  to the speech of the former President of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili,  which, given the limited resources of the state and its geopolitical  position, is fraught with more than serious problems.