Former state minister of Artsakh sees three scenarios of resolving  crisis round Artsakh

ArmInfo. In an interview with Caucasus Watch, former state minister of Artsakh Ruben Vardanyan  spoke of three scenarios of resolving the crisis round Artsakh

In response to a question as to where he sees Karabakh 20 years from  now, Mr Vardanyan said: 

"We have established a movement that supports the 'Artsakh 2035  Vision.' Of course, nothing will come easily. We aim to live in our  own homeland, and there are several potential scenarios to achieve  this goal. It is an arduous journey, replete with obstacles, but we  draw inspiration from world history and analogous cases that  demonstrate such movements can persist for decades. We are prepared  to undertake this path with ample determination and resilience.

"Our vision is to defend our homeland. From our side, I see a great  determination for people to stay and take a stand. A change in the  Armenian government could bring a greater political alignment between  Armenia and Artsakh. There may also be greater involvement by  international actors. Therefore, the first scenario we are  considering as quite possible for the next 30-to-50 years is status  quo maintenance.

"This would be maintained by both sides: on the one hand, I do not  see how the local population can accept to live as an Azerbaijani  ethnic minority; on the other hand, a subdued Artsakh - that would  wish to unite with Armenia - is a useful trigger of 'perpetual  national emergency' that is convenient for the Aliyev regime.  Nevertheless, the dream for unification continues to persist. If  these assumptions hold, the new normal will be periods of conflict  with intervals of relative stability. We will maintain the status  quo, dynamically."

The second scenarios is, according to Mr Vardanyan, the one involving  the satellite-like integration of Artsakh into Russia.

Different circles envision an alternative scenario that goes beyond  maintaining the status quo -Russia is the West's adversary today and  that would affect how the West sees Artsakh in this scenario. But we  are talking about 20 years from now. Do we believe that Russia will  remain an adversary to the West? 

"A third scenario entails an 'international mandate' or intervention  by external powers, providing certain security guarantees. South  Caucusus was always viewed by the West and the rest as Russia's  domain. West delegated South Caucuses security to Russia. It could be  changing now. Iran is highly likely to move in to balance  Azerbaijani-Israeli alliance in the region. Reminding you, Iran has  better relations today with Ankara (NATO member) than with Baku. If  Iran becomes a security guarantor in the Caucasus. How would the West  react to that?

"However, it's crucial for people to recognize that the future rests  in our hands. We cannot merely stand by and debate others' scenarios;  we must formulate our own plan and narrative. I believe assuming  responsibility and actively shaping our future is paramount.  Important note. Armenia and Artsakh might be young democracies, but  they are still democracies sandwiched between mighty Turkey,  Azerbaijan, Russia and Iran. I do not see Armenians being subjected  to limitations of their human rights and freedoms willingly or submit  to power without putting up dignified resistance.

"But it is very important for people to realize that the future is in  their hands. And with their own actions, they can have an impact on  these scenarios; indeed, they can insist on and achieve the  implementation of their own scenario," Mr Vardanyan said.  

Asked whether he sees three scenarios: status quo maintenance with a  view to eventual unification with Armenia, or Russian satellisation,  or an international mandate, presumably like the status of Palestine  before the establishment of the State of Israel, Mr Vardanyan answer  in the affirmative. 

Although the situation is undoubtedly very challenging, Mr Vardanyan  does not think that Azerbaijan is preparing to initiate another  large-scale military operation after Autumn 2020. 

"Having said that, we need to understand that Azerbaijan is shooting  civilians who work in the fields on a daily basis. Furthermore, they  tend to prefer small-scale local operations, which help maintain a  sense of tension and fear among the people regarding potential  military actions.

"The blockade is exerting both humanitarian and economic impacts. The  military threat appears intended to affect us psychologically.  However, I am not convinced that they are inclined towards an  aggressive scenario. They employ various tactics to subdue us, waging  a hybrid war on multiple fronts- informational, psychological, moral,  economic, and involving numerous other factors. They use the  humanitarian crisis as a weapon to reach political goals. The food  issue is weaponized and used against us," he said.

"Those who believe that Azerbaijan only desires Nagorno-Karabakh are  gravely mistaken; their recent aggressive actions towards Armenia  proper have demonstrated the opposite. Aliyev is deeply convinced  that he will always remain unpunished, leading him to resort to the  use of force or threats of force. On a daily basis, their media  prepares the groundwork for this. Their insatiable appetite for more  will eventually turn against them, sooner or later," Mr Vardanyan  said. 

The full interview is available here:  https://caucasuswatch.de/en/interviews/ruben-vardanyan-no-matter-  what-there-will-be-resistance.html