Analyst: Continued tensions between Yerevan and Moscow could entail  new restrictive measures from Russia

ArmInfo. According to analyst Tigran Dumikyan, if tensions in Armenian-Russian relations  persist or deepen, the possibility of tightening customs controls,  introducing additional trade restrictions, or revising energy pricing  policies cannot be theoretically ruled out. Referring to the recent  phone conversation between the leaders of Armenia and Russia, the  analyst stated that developments in Armenian-Russian relations in  recent weeks indicate the emergence of a qualitatively new situation  in bilateral relations.

" Official Moscow now demands a more open and targeted clarification  of its foreign policy stance from Armenia. Concurrently, the  practical application of the benefits previously available to Armenia  within the framework of the single EAEU market is being restricted,"  the expert believes.

According to him, the problem lies in the fact that in the emerging  new geopolitical realities, the South Caucasus has become an  important platform for global competition, where the strategic  interests of Russia, the West, Turkey, Iran, and other players  intersect.

"For Russia, the region continues to be a vital security zone, while  Western countries are constantly striving to increase their  political, economic, and military presence in the region. In this  context, the 'Middle Corridor' initiative, in which the collective  West is showing growing interest, is of particular importance. The  project is viewed not only as an alternative logistics route  connecting Europe and Asia, but also as a strategic instrument to  reduce the transit influence of Russia and, to some extent, Iran.   Western political circles have repeatedly stated that Russia's  military-political presence in the region remains one of the main  limiting factors for the full implementation of this initiative,"  Dumikyan recalled.

He noted that, as a rule, such political statements are accompanied  by closed diplomatic negotiations and practical steps that are not  fully disclosed in the public sphere but can have a significant  impact on the regional balance of power. The analyst is confident  that in such a situation, it is important to evaluate not only public  statements but also the political decisions and negotiating processes  that could form the basis of official Moscow's current harsh  response.

Dumikyan believes that, regardless of the content of these processes,  the high degree of economic vulnerability remains a key problem for  Armenia. At the same time, the expert added, restrictions that have  arisen in the export sector of Armenian products in recent months  have already led to significant economic losses, negatively affecting  both the operations of manufacturing and exporting companies and  state budget tax revenues. The analyst noted that the sphere of  strategic imports remains the most sensitive. He pointed out that,  according to official data for 2025 alone, about 99% of wheat and  approximately 85% of natural and liquefied gas are imported into  Armenia from the Russian Federation.  Thus, he continued, even a  limited set of economic pressure instruments could have a substantial  impact on Armenia's domestic market.

"Therefore, if tensions in Armenian-Russian relations persist or  deepen, the possibility of tightening customs controls, introducing  additional trade restrictions, or revising energy pricing policies  cannot be theoretically ruled out. Although the implementation of  such scenarios depends on numerous political and economic factors,  their likelihood cannot be ignored from an economic security  perspective. Under these circumstances, the Armenian authorities have  virtually no room for maneuver, so it is necessary to make prompt and  effective decisions to mitigate potential political and economic  risks," Dumikyan believes.

Otherwise, the analyst is confident that the main socioeconomic  consequences of the geopolitical standoff will fall on the shoulders  of ordinary Armenian citizens in the form of a significant decline in  living standards, increased food security risks, increased  inflationary pressure, and rising utility costs.

Recall, on July 27, during a phone conversation with Russian  President Vladimir Putin, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan  emphasized that restrictions on the export of goods of Armenian  origin to the Russian market contradict the Armenian-Russian legal  framework and the provisions of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).  Pashinyan called for measures to address these issues. Regarding the  referendum on Armenia's accession to the European Union, as stated in  the joint statement of the leaders of the four EAEU member states  adopted on May 29 of this year, Pashinyan emphasized that holding a  referendum is only feasible after Armenia submits an official  application for EU membership and makes this issue substantive. At  the same time, Pashinyan emphasized the Armenian government's  readiness to resolve the aforementioned issues through an open,  partnership-based, and friendly dialogue.