Political Scientist: Armenian society may not support country`s  European integration if cost of reforms is felt before benefits

ArmInfo. Public support for Armenia's European integration may weaken if the cost of reforms is felt before tangible benefits emerge. This opinion was expressed on his Facebook page by political scientist Sergey Minasyan, Deputy  Director of the Caucasus Institute, while presenting the domestic  dimension of Armenia's integration with the European Union (EU).

The expert recalled that the theme of a European direction was  actively used as one of the most influential political messages by  the Civil Contract party of current Armenian Prime Minister Nikol  Pashinyan during the parliamentary elections on June 7. "The two  major European summits held in Yerevan in May, just a few weeks  before the elections, were particularly impressive. But we shouldn't  create the illusion that the European path is simply an election  tool. The reality is more complex," the political scientist believes.

He noted that at least six political forces participating in the  elections declared European integration a priority. However, he  added, some young opposition forces are criticizing not the European  path itself, but the way it is being implemented: selective reforms,  weak anti-corruption controls, and an uneven distribution of  benefits.

"Although these political forces failed to cross the electoral  threshold to enter parliament, the criticism they voice could  contribute to a more convincing and sustainable implementation of  reforms. This is because there is a so-called 'values gap' in  society. According to a poll conducted by the International  Republican Institute (IRI) in the spring of 2026, support for  European integration increased significantly from 58% (in 2023) to  approximately 75%, but only 38% believe the government is  implementing the process transparently. Just over half of survey  respondents are sufficiently aware of the practical significance of  the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA) and its  implications," noted the Deputy Director of the Caucasus Institute.

In other words, as Minasyan explained, public support for the  European direction is broad, but not always based on a deep  understanding of its content and practical implications. Because, as  the expert noted, for many, "Europe" symbolizes prosperity and  legitimacy rather than a clearly articulated political program.   "Such support could weaken if the costs of reforms are felt before  tangible benefits emerge. The experience of other Eastern Partnership  countries shows how quickly public enthusiasm can fade when  expectations outweigh actual results," the political scientist  believes.

According to him, the core of the problem is that the government's  communications policy has so far been primarily focused on external  partners-Brussels and European capitals-while coordinated and  meaningful communication with the public has remained relatively  limited. Minasyan believes that this approach may be justified in the  short term, but in the long term, it creates vulnerabilities. "A  European path not based on deep social consensus remains fragile.  Georgia's experience over the past decade shows how quickly the  vector can change when decisive elections are not institutionally  anchored," the expert noted.

Therefore, according to the deputy director of the Caucasus  Institute, Armenia's European integration is a long-term political  project that requires the constant deepening of social consensus.  "This concerns not only communication with Brussels, but also work  with our own society-skeptics, the opposition, and communities  outside the capital. This communication gap is more than just an  information problem. It could become one of the fundamental  challenges to the stability of Armenia's European integration, no  less important than the successful implementation of judicial,  administrative, and institutional reforms," Minasyan concluded.

As a reminder, on January 9, 2025, the Armenian government approved a  draft law on the start of the accession process to the European  Union, proposed by the "Eurakve" civic initiative. The draft was  submitted to the Armenian parliament for approval. On March 26, the  parliament adopted it in its final reading and sent it to the  president for signature. The document was signed on April 4 of that  year. Moscow stated that Russia had conveyed to Armenia that  simultaneous membership in the Eurasian Economic Union and the  European Union was impossible.

On May 9, Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking to journalists,  suggested that Armenia decide on its membership in the EU and the  EAEU as soon as possible, expressing its readiness to "begin a  civilized divorce" if necessary. Yerevan responded by stating that it  would leave the EAEU whenever it deemed it necessary. And on May 29,  the heads of state of four of the five EAEU member states adopted a  resolution recommending that Armenia hold a referendum on its  continued membership in the EAEU. That same day, the Russian  president stated that Armenia could not afford to sit on both sides  and needed to make a choice as soon as possible. Armenia was given  until December to decide on its path.